Troublesome flaw with the Edmonton Oilers just bit them in the butt. Not to worry?
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A troublesome flaw with the Edmonton Oilers just bit them in the butt. Not to worry?
Consider the following points about Edmonton’s Top 6 regular season attackers when it comes to Edmonton’s even strength play in the first six games of the 2024 National Hockey League playoffs:
1. Connor McDavid has been able to get off Grade A shots at just one third the rate as he did in the regular season and he’s chipping in on scoring chance shots at less than half his regular season rate.
2. Warren Foegele is averaging about one quarter as many Grade A shots per game as he did in the regular season.
3. Zach Hyman has put up a higher rate of even strength points in the playoffs, but his shots rate and contribution rate to Grade A shots are down.
4. Leon Draisaitl’s major contributions to Grade A shots has been more than cut in half, just like McDavid, from the regular season to the playoffs. And this was before he got injured.
5. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins‘ rate of Grade A shots is down to a third of what it was in the regular season. He too is contributing to about half as many Grade A shots now compared to the regular season.
6. Evander Kane is the only Top 6 Oilers forward holding his own, getting the same rate of points and a higher rate of both shots and Grade A shots at even strength in the playoffs.
What does it mean? The Oilers have won four out of six playoff games, but that’s due to their brilliant special teams. It’s because of a penalty kill that has still yet to be scored upon and a history-making, record-setting NHL power play.
On the strength of those special teams, Edmonton has won, but that dynamic failed against the Vancouver Canucks on Wednesday night. Edmonton won the special teams battle 1-0, but lost the even strength battle 5-3.
Edmonton scored on its only power play against Vancouver, but how many power plays per game will it get? What percentage of Vancouver’s fouls are the refs willing to call? And will that small number allow the team to win with its otherworldly special team’s excellence.
And can both special teams keep on flying so close to the sun? The Oilers and their fans can hope that will happen but hope is not a strategy. Figuring out how to do better at even strength is a strategy.
Oilers getting out-played at even strength in playoffs
In the regular season, Edmonton created 12.3 Grade A shots per game at even strength. In the playoffs, the team is down to just 8.0 per game.
At the same time, Edmonton gave up 9.1 grade A shots per game in the regular season. In the playoffs, they are are giving up 9.2 per game. Their Grade A shots differential at even strength has dropped from +3.2 per game in the regular season to -1.2 in the playoffs.
Some drop is expected, given that the Oilers are playing more difficult teams on average than in the regular season. But the Oilers are going nowhere fast in the playoffs if they can’t at least equal the Grade A shots total of the opposition. They will not likely get past Vancouver, let alone win the Stanley Cup.
This is a major issue (You’ll notice in the chart below I have the Oilers with 12 power play goals, not 10 as they officially have. This is because two goals came seconds after Edmonton’s power play had ended and the Kings penalized player had yet to return to action. All four main Oilers forwards (McD, Drai, RNH and Hyman) plus Bouchard were still on the ice. At the Cult of Hockey, we attempt to reflect what’s happened in a game, so don’t systematically reject this kind of overlap in power play scoring).
How can this issue be fixed?
To get a better sense of what’s going on, I reviewed all of McDavid’s shifts from the Vancouver game. What quickly became clear is that Vancouver is not shadowing McDavid in any way, they’re just on him constantly. He was given almost no time and space to make a play, especially after the first period. This led him to make a steady number of turnovers.
Vancouver’s success in holding him to no shots and just one major contribution to a Grade a shot came because of disciplined, focused, fundamental defensive play.
Every Canuck player chipped in. Nobody was slacking. There were few mental mistakes.
How to beat this?
Kane’s relative playoff success likely provides a clue. He goes in the forecheck hard, with his feet moving. He attacks with his feet moving. To break through Vancouver’s defensive wall, the Oilers are going to have to get their feet moving fast and charge in like battering rams. It’s crude but it’s been effective for Kane.
It’s essential that a player like Foegele adopt this style, one that Zach Hyman also practices.
With McDavid, I noticed that often he was looking to make plays with the puck but too often he was standing still. This made him an easier target for Vancouver defenders.
We should not expect McDavid to be a human version of a rhino but if he’s focused on moving with speed at all times with the puck and on the forecheck, more success is likely to come his way at even strength.
The same goes for finesse players like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Ryan McLeod on the attack. They’ve got to attack and forecheck at maximum speed, with maximum relentless. The way to beat Vancouver’s aggressive but disciplined defence is with speed and greater aggression. Standing around trying to make plays isn’t going to cut it.
Make sense?
At the Cult of Hockey
McCURDY: How the Oilers vs Canucks were made?
STAPLES: Another winger to get the McDavid bump; Draisaitl misses practice
STAPLES: How can the Edmonton Oilers rebound from cosmic stinker of a loss?
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